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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Alaska and South Carolina Senate races in favor of Democrats

The forecaster shifted Alaska’s Senate race toward Democrats, citing Peltola’s primary performance and the November ballot field.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Alaska and South Carolina Senate races in favor of Democrats
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This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
tl;dr

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its Alaska Senate rating from Toss-up to Leans Democrat and its South Carolina rating from Safe Republican to Leans Republican. The changes reflect a more competitive outlook for Democrats, though the South Carolina race remains rated in Republicans’ favor.

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Mary Peltola Former U.S. Representative (D-AK)
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Peltola in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Peltola’s record.

● INFORMATIONAL

People in this story

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Mary Peltola
Former U.S. Representative (D-AK)

Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska whose race rating improved

PRIMARY SUBJECT

Democratic Texas Senate candidate mentioned in discussion of Republican campaign spending

Lindsey Graham
Former U.S. Senator (R-SC)

Late South Carolina senator and Darline Graham Nordone’s brother

Democratic Senate candidate in Iowa mentioned in a comparison with other rating changes

Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President whom Thune pressed for more funding for battleground races

John Thune
R · SD · SEN

Senate majority leader who pressed President Trump for more funding for battleground races

John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

Republican Texas senator whose seat Talarico is seeking

Dan Sullivan
R · AK · SEN

Republican incumbent and Senate candidate in Alaska

Democratic Senate candidate in South Carolina

ALSO MENTIONED  Darline Graham Nordone, Republican Senate candidate in South Carolina whose race rating became less secure; Abdul el Sayed, Michigan candidate mentioned in a comparison with other rating changes; Dan Sullivan, Unaffiliated Senate candidate in Alaska, distinct from the incumbent

Part of a bigger story

4 OUTLETS
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts Alaska Senate Race to Leans Democrat

The outlets agree Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Alaska’s Senate race from a toss-up to Leans Democrat, with Mary Peltola central to the changed outlook. Center outlets describe the shift as a more favorable Democratic forecast, generally tying it to Peltola’s standing while some also note the race remains competitive or compare other Senate ratings.

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