Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Alaska and South Carolina Senate races in favor of Democrats
The forecaster shifted Alaska’s Senate race toward Democrats, citing Peltola’s primary performance and the November ballot field.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYThe Washington Examiner is an established national news organization with identifiable authorship and a record of political reporting. Its recognized editorial operation supports a solid score, though it is not a wire service or newspaper of record.
- Source type — Established national news outlet; a strong baseline for institutional credibility.
- Author attribution — The article names a reporter.
- Editorial standards — Professional newsroom, though specific correction practices are not established by this article.
The article attributes the ratings and explanations to Sabato’s Crystal Ball and includes primary-election figures and some broader Senate-race context. It relies heavily on the forecaster’s assessment and does not include responses from the candidates or further independent analysis.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article explains the forecaster’s reasoning and includes election figures and Senate control context, but offers little direct response from candidates or other independent perspectives.
- Counterarguments presented — No candidate response or substantive counterargument to the forecaster’s ratings is included.
- Source diversity — The ratings discussion relies mainly on Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with a brief quote from John Thune.
- Opinion vs reporting — The piece is presented as reporting and attributes judgments rather than adopting them as its own.
- Loaded language — The most pointed description, “flawed,” is attributed to the forecaster.
The article reports race-rating changes in neutral language, attributes assessments to the forecaster, and includes context about both parties’ Senate prospects without an evident partisan framing.
- Language tone — Mostly descriptive and attributed language; evaluative wording such as “flawed” is clearly attributed to the forecaster.
- Framing — Covers ratings shifts affecting Democrats while also reporting the remaining Republican advantage in South Carolina and the Senate majority math.
- Source selection — The main judgments come from the named forecaster, with a quotation from the Republican Senate leader for additional context.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its Alaska Senate rating from Toss-up to Leans Democrat and its South Carolina rating from Safe Republican to Leans Republican. The changes reflect a more competitive outlook for Democrats, though the South Carolina race remains rated in Republicans’ favor.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the Alaska race between Sen. Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola from Toss-up to Leans Democrat. The forecaster cited polling, Peltola’s primary performance and the presence of another Dan Sullivan on the November ballot. Peltola received 49.5% of the primary vote, while Sullivan received 41.4%; the other candidate received 2.5%, according to the forecaster. Republicans have sued over concerns that the other candidate could confuse voters.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Peltola in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Peltola’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska whose race rating improved
Democratic Texas Senate candidate mentioned in discussion of Republican campaign spending
Late South Carolina senator and Darline Graham Nordone’s brother
Democratic Senate candidate in Iowa mentioned in a comparison with other rating changes
President whom Thune pressed for more funding for battleground races
Senate majority leader who pressed President Trump for more funding for battleground races
Republican Texas senator whose seat Talarico is seeking
Republican incumbent and Senate candidate in Alaska
Democratic Senate candidate in South Carolina
Part of a bigger story
4 OUTLETSThe outlets agree Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Alaska’s Senate race from a toss-up to Leans Democrat, with Mary Peltola central to the changed outlook. Center outlets describe the shift as a more favorable Democratic forecast, generally tying it to Peltola’s standing while some also note the race remains competitive or compare other Senate ratings.
- ARTICLES
- 5
- OUTLETS
- 4
- AVG CRED
- 72
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