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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Alaska Senate race to ‘leans Democrat’

The rating shift makes Peltola’s challenge to incumbent Dan Sullivan the focus of a more favorable forecast for Democrats.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Alaska Senate race to ‘leans Democrat’
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This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
The Hill
Oct 6, 2026
tl;dr

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Alaska’s Senate race from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democrat,” citing indicators that may favor former Rep. Mary Peltola over Sen. Dan Sullivan. The article says the contest remains competitive and other forecasters disagree.

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Mary Peltola Former U.S. Representative (D-AK)
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This story reports what happened without casting Peltola in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Peltola’s record.

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Mary Peltola
Former U.S. Representative (D-AK)

Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska

PRIMARY SUBJECT
Dan Sullivan
R · AK · SEN

Republican incumbent senator seeking reelection in Alaska

Sullivan's version of this story ↗
J.D. Vance
Vice President of the United States

Vice President campaigning for Sullivan in Alaska

Part of a bigger story

4 OUTLETS
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts Alaska Senate Race to Leans Democrat

The outlets agree Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Alaska’s Senate race from a toss-up to Leans Democrat, with Mary Peltola central to the changed outlook. Center outlets describe the shift as a more favorable Democratic forecast, generally tying it to Peltola’s standing while some also note the race remains competitive or compare other Senate ratings.

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