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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Texas' Republican Senate primary runoff statistically tied shortly before start of early voting, poll finds

A University of Houston poll found Paxton narrowly ahead of John Cornyn in the Republican Senate runoff.

Texas' Republican Senate primary runoff statistically tied shortly before start of early voting, poll finds
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This article1 analysis · Oct 7, 2026

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67 stories · 79–80 · updated Oct 7, 2026

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Texas Public Radiocites Houston Public Media
May 5, 2026
tl;dr

A University of Houston poll found Ken Paxton and John Cornyn statistically tied in Texas’ Republican Senate primary runoff, with Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45%. The survey also measured several other Texas Republican runoff contests.

Community verdict

VOTING CLOSED
How does this story look for
Ken Paxton R · TX
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Paxton in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Paxton’s record.

● INFORMATIONAL

People in this story

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Ken Paxton
R · TX

Republican Senate candidate in the Texas primary runoff

PRIMARY SUBJECT
John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

U.S. senator and Republican Senate candidate in the Texas primary runoff

Cornyn's version of this story ↗

Democratic Senate nominee mentioned in a projection about the general election

Libertarian Senate candidate mentioned as a possible protest-vote option

Chip Roy
R · TX-21

U.S. representative and Republican candidate for Texas attorney general

Wesley Hunt
R · TX-38

U.S. representative whose voters’ runoff preferences are discussed

ALSO MENTIONED  Aaron Reitz, Candidate in the first round of the Republican primary; Bo French, Republican activist and candidate in the Railroad Commission runoff; Jim Wright, Incumbent Texas Railroad Commissioner and Republican candidate in the runoff; Joan Huffman, Texas state senator and candidate in the first round of the Republican primary; Mayes Middleton, State senator and Republican candidate for Texas attorney general

Part of a bigger story

7 OUTLETS
University of Houston Poll Finds Paxton Leading Cornyn in Texas Runoff

A University of Houston poll put Ken Paxton at 48% and John Cornyn at 45% among likely Republican runoff voters, a gap within the poll’s margin of error. Left-leaning outlets report the narrow poll lead and also highlight reports of donor reluctance and fundraising difficulties. Center outlets present the result as a close or statistically tied contest. Right-leaning outlets report the narrow lead and add Paxton’s campaign ad criticizing Cornyn’s past immigration remarks.

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