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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Alaska Senate seat leans Democratic for first time in 18 years

Sullivan is seeking reelection as the race rating moves toward his Democratic challenger.

Alaska Senate seat leans Democratic for first time in 18 years
Image · Newsweek

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Outlet credibilityNewsweek75/100 HIGH
This article1 analysis · Oct 8, 2026
Newsweek
Oct 6, 2026
tl;dr

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Alaska’s Senate race from a toss-up to “Leans Democratic,” citing Mary Peltola’s polling lead and the state’s voting system. The rating change signals a more competitive reelection contest for incumbent Dan Sullivan.

Community verdict

VOTING CLOSED
How does this story look for
Dan Sullivan R · AK · SEN
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Sullivan in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Sullivan’s record.

● INFORMATIONAL

People in this story

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Dan Sullivan
R · AK · SEN

Republican incumbent in Alaska’s Senate race

PRIMARY SUBJECT
Mary Peltola
Former U.S. Representative (D-AK)

Democratic candidate in Alaska’s Senate race

Peltola's version of this story ↗
Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President who appeared with Sullivan at an investment announcement

Kamala Harris
Former U.S. Senator (D-CA)

Democrat criticized by Vance

J.D. Vance
Vice President of the United States

Vice President who rallied with Sullivan

Democrat criticized by Vance

ALSO MENTIONED  Mark Begich, Democrat who won Alaska’s Senate race in 2008; Todd Stevens, Republican senator mentioned in the account of the 2008 race

Part of a bigger story

3 OUTLETS
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Alaska Senate Race to Leans Democrat

The outlets report that Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its Alaska Senate rating from a toss-up to leans Democrat, with incumbent Dan Sullivan seeking reelection against Mary Peltola. Center outlets frame the shift as a sign of a more competitive race, citing Peltola’s polling lead; The Hill also notes that other forecasters disagree.

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