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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Two Key Senate Races Toward Democrats, Including a GOP Flip

The Crystal Ball shifted Alaska’s Senate race toward Democrats and reported polls showing Peltola ahead of Sullivan.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Two Key Senate Races Toward Democrats, Including a GOP Flip
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This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
Mediaite
Oct 6, 2026
tl;dr

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Alaska’s Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic and South Carolina’s from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Its analysis cited polling leads for Mary Peltola in Alaska and described Annie Andrews as a credible challenger to Darline Graham in South Carolina.

Community verdict

VOTING CLOSED
How does this story look for
Dan Sullivan R · AK · SEN
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Sullivan in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Sullivan’s record.

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People in this story

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Dan Sullivan
R · AK · SEN

Republican senator and candidate in Alaska’s Senate race

PRIMARY SUBJECT
Darline Graham
R · SC · SEN

Republican senator and candidate in South Carolina’s Senate race

Graham's version of this story ↗
Mary Peltola
Former U.S. Representative (D-AK)

Democratic candidate in Alaska’s Senate race

Peltola's version of this story ↗
Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President; described as backing Graham

Republican candidate in Minnesota’s open-seat Senate race

Democratic candidate in Minnesota’s open-seat Senate race

Democratic candidate challenging Graham in South Carolina’s Senate race

Part of a bigger story

3 OUTLETS
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Alaska Senate Race to Leans Democrat

The outlets report that Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its Alaska Senate rating from a toss-up to leans Democrat, with incumbent Dan Sullivan seeking reelection against Mary Peltola. Center outlets frame the shift as a sign of a more competitive race, citing Peltola’s polling lead; The Hill also notes that other forecasters disagree.

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