Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Two Key Senate Races Toward Democrats, Including a GOP Flip
The Crystal Ball shifted Alaska’s Senate race toward Democrats and reported polls showing Peltola ahead of Sullivan.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYMediaite is an established national news publisher with identifiable authorship, and this article attributes its central forecasts and polling claims to the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball analysis. The short report offers limited original reporting beyond relaying that analysis.
- Source type — An established national news outlet, supporting a solid baseline assessment.
- Transparency — It identifies the Crystal Ball as the source of the race-rating changes and attributes its assessments.
- Author attribution — The article names an author.
- Original reporting — The article mainly summarizes an outside forecast and polling rather than presenting extensive independent reporting.
The report attributes forecasts to the Crystal Ball and gives specific polling figures and descriptions of the polls. It is concise and relies mainly on one forecasting group’s analysis, with little independent context or response from the candidates.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article presents the forecasting group’s assessments and polling rather than making an argument for either party. It does not include candidate responses or a second forecaster’s view, but those omissions are limited in a report about rating changes.
- Counterarguments presented — No candidate responses or competing forecaster assessments are included.
- Source diversity — The central judgments come from one forecasting group, while multiple polling sources are cited for Alaska.
- Loaded language — The phrase “flawed candidates” is attributed to the analysis; the report otherwise uses restrained language.
- Opinion vs reporting — The article reports attributed forecasts rather than presenting the outlet’s own opinion.
The article neutrally reports race-rating changes and attributes the evaluations and polling to the Crystal Ball and named pollsters. It uses no discernible partisan language of its own.
- Language tone — Mostly factual language; evaluative descriptions are attributed to the Crystal Ball.
- Source selection — The report relies on a named forecasting group and identifies the polling sources it cites.
- Framing — The framing centers on changes in race ratings rather than endorsing a candidate.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Alaska’s Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic and South Carolina’s from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Its analysis cited polling leads for Mary Peltola in Alaska and described Annie Andrews as a credible challenger to Darline Graham in South Carolina.
The Crystal Ball moved Alaska’s Senate race toward Democrats, from Toss Up to Lean Democratic, and said it had steadily moved in Mary Peltola’s direction since she entered the race. The analysis cited two polls showing Peltola ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan, including one that showed her leading after accounting for ranked-choice voting. It said Alaska was one of Democrats’ most promising Senate targets. (The analysis spells Peltola’s name “Petola” once when discussing her earlier reelection bid.)
In South Carolina, the Crystal Ball said Sen. Darline Graham was only nominally ahead of physician Annie Andrews but predicted Graham would ultimately win. It compared Graham’s position with Minnesota’s open-seat race, where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan had a modest lead over Michele Tafoya; the analysis rated that race Likely Democratic and said both Flanagan and Graham faced credible challengers.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Sullivan in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Sullivan’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Republican senator and candidate in South Carolina’s Senate race
Graham's version of this story ↗Democratic candidate in Alaska’s Senate race
Peltola's version of this story ↗President; described as backing Graham
Republican candidate in Minnesota’s open-seat Senate race
Democratic candidate in Minnesota’s open-seat Senate race
Democratic candidate challenging Graham in South Carolina’s Senate race
Part of a bigger story
3 OUTLETSThe outlets report that Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its Alaska Senate rating from a toss-up to leans Democrat, with incumbent Dan Sullivan seeking reelection against Mary Peltola. Center outlets frame the shift as a sign of a more competitive race, citing Peltola’s polling lead; The Hill also notes that other forecasters disagree.
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