Massive polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan primaries
El-Sayed won Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary by a narrow margin after polls and prediction markets forecast a stronger result.
SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYCNBC is an established national news organization with named reporters and attributed sources. The article also discloses CNBC’s commercial relationship with Kalshi, a relevant transparency measure.
- Source type — Established national news outlet with a professional newsroom.
- Transparency — The article discloses CNBC’s commercial relationship with Kalshi.
- Author attribution — Two reporters are named.
- Editorial standards — The reporting attributes analysis and statements to named sources and provides specific figures.
The story uses named analysts, platform representatives and specific polling and market odds, and it includes a disclosure relevant to the subject. It offers plausible explanations for the misses but limited detail about the underlying polls or their methodologies.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article includes several perspectives on why polls and prediction markets missed, including criticism and defenses of the markets. It gives less attention to pollsters or detailed polling methodology, leaving some explanations untested.
- Source diversity — Includes multiple analysts and market representatives with differing views on prediction markets.
- Counterarguments presented — Criticism of market performance is paired with arguments about their usefulness and probabilistic nature.
- Omitted context — Provides little detail about the polling organizations, samples or methodologies behind the cited forecasts.
The article presents election results, market odds and attributed explanations in largely neutral language. It includes perspectives from analysts and prediction-market representatives without discernible partisan framing.
- Language tone — Mostly descriptive language; quoted evaluations are attributed to their speakers.
- Source selection — Includes election-data analysts and representatives of prediction-market platforms.
- Framing — Frames the story around forecasting errors and their possible causes rather than endorsing a party or candidate.
Polling and prediction markets substantially overstated Francesca Hong’s chances in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary and Abdul El-Sayed’s margin in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. Analysts cited polling patterns and late campaign shifts as possible factors, while noting prediction markets also missed in Wisconsin.
Francesca Hong lost Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by less than one percentage point, despite public polling showing her ahead by about 20 points. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate primary by one point after polls had him ahead by double digits; in Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig by nearly 20 points despite polls showing a close race.
Prediction markets also gave Hong a strong advantage before the Wisconsin results, while markets gave El-Sayed more than 90% odds of winning Michigan. Analysts suggested polling response patterns and late campaign changes may have contributed to the misses. A Polymarket spokesperson said a post describing Hong as a “near-lock” was deleted after an internal flag; Kalshi’s CEO said a 5% chance still allows for an outcome that happens one time in 20.
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SWIPE →Democratic Senate candidate whose Michigan primary win was underestimated by polls and prediction markets
Representative and Michigan Democratic Senate primary candidate
Representative and Minnesota Democratic Senate primary candidate
Minnesota lieutenant governor and Democratic Senate primary winner
Representative who commented on lessons Democrats could draw from the primary results
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