New poll: Democrat James Talarico leads both Republicans in Texas US Senate race
The poll found Talarico narrowly ahead of Paxton in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYCredibility rates Salon, which republished this story. The other scores rate the article itself.
The reporting is attributed to The Texas Tribune, an established nonprofit newsroom, though Salon republishes it. The article identifies its author and provides detailed polling methods and caveats.
- Source type — The original reporting is attributed to an established regional nonprofit newsroom.
- Transparency — The article gives the poll dates, sample size, likely-voter population and margin of error.
- Author attribution — A named author is credited.
- Editorial standards — The original publisher is identified, but the page provides no details about corrections practices.
The article gives specific poll results and methodology and includes caveats about the margin of error and past polling. It offers useful race context, though the account relies heavily on one poll and does not include candidate responses.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article provides polling caveats and context that temper the Democratic leads, but most of the article focuses on one poll and does not include responses from the candidates.
- Counterarguments presented — The article notes that the leads are within the margin of error and that past polls have overstated Democratic prospects.
- Source diversity — The poll and its results are the main source; candidate responses are absent.
- Loaded language — The reporting uses limited evaluative language.
- Omitted context — The account gives broader race context but does not explain the pollster’s methods beyond basic sample details.
The article reports poll results in neutral language and includes both the favorable matchups for Talarico and caveats about the margin of error and past polling.
- Language tone — The wording is predominantly descriptive rather than evaluative.
- Framing — The poll’s Democratic leads are paired with the margin-of-error caveat and historical polling context.
- Source selection — The article relies on one polling organization and reports its stated methods.
Republished with credit
Republished from Texas Tribune, with credit to the original publisher.
65 stories · 79–80 · updated Oct 9, 2026
This is Texas Tribune's own score, and this article is credited to Texas Tribune. The host score in the Source Check is Salon's.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll found James Talarico ahead of John Cornyn and Ken Paxton in hypothetical general-election matchups, but both leads were within the poll’s margin of error. The article also reports polling on Texas’s governor and attorney general races.
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey conducted April 17–20 found Talarico leading Cornyn 44% to 41% and Paxton 46% to 41%. The poll surveyed 1,018 likely general-election voters and had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. The article notes that the leads are within that margin and that past Texas polls have sometimes overstated Democratic prospects.
The article says Cornyn and Paxton were competing in a May 26 Republican Senate runoff, while Talarico had won his primary in early March. It also reports that the poll found Republicans leading in the governor and attorney general contests, with the governor’s race within the margin of error.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Paxton in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Paxton’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Senator and Republican Senate candidate in the Texas runoff
Cornyn's version of this story ↗President, mentioned in discussion of the political environment
U.S. representative and Republican candidate for attorney general
Senator who faced Beto O'Rourke in 2018
Former Democratic Senate candidate in Texas
Part of a bigger story
8 OUTLETSA Texas poll found James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton and John Cornyn in hypothetical U.S. Senate matchups. Left-leaning outlets stress that the leads are within the margin of error and note the Republican runoff. Center outlets report the leads, often with margin-of-error or runoff context. Right-leaning outlets question the poll’s reliability, citing the polling director’s Democratic ties.
- ARTICLES
- 8
- OUTLETS
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- AVG CRED
- 65
- Attack of the Fanboy · James Talarico is now leading both Republican Senate candidates in Texas, a state where no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994
- Foxsanantonio · James Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in new poll of the U.S. Senate race
- townhall.com · New Poll Shows James Talarico Leading Ken Paxton and John Cornyn – but There's a Problem
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