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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Texas Is Democrat Blue Mirage. Paxton, Trump Polls May Bring It Into Focus

Experts and polls cited in the article describe Paxton’s unfavorable ratings and his close contest with James Talarico.

Texas Is Democrat Blue Mirage. Paxton, Trump Polls May Bring It Into Focus
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This article1 analysis · Oct 2, 2026
Newsweek
Oct 1, 2026
tl;dr

Experts dispute whether Ken Paxton is the least popular Texas Republican Senate nominee in decades, but agree that his unfavorable ratings are a challenge. Polls described in the article show a close race with James Talarico as Texas remains Republican-leaning.

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How does this story look for
Ken Paxton R · TX
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Paxton in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Paxton’s record.

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Ken Paxton
R · TX

Republican Senate nominee in the Texas race

PRIMARY SUBJECT

Democratic Senate nominee in the Texas race

Talarico's version of this story ↗
Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President quoted commenting on Paxton

Ted Cruz
R · TX · SEN

Senator mentioned in a comparison with a previous Texas Senate race

Beto O'Rourke
Former U.S. Representative (D-TX)

Democrat mentioned as Cruz’s opponent in the 2018 Texas Senate race

John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

Outgoing senator mentioned as a comparison for Paxton’s image ratings

Part of a bigger story

5 OUTLETS
Fox News Poll Finds Talarico Ahead of Paxton in Texas Senate Race

The outlets report that a Fox News poll puts James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 51%-49% among likely Texas voters, within the margin of error, in the Texas Senate race. Left-leaning outlets frame the poll as a sign that Trump’s unpopularity may be weakening Paxton and aiding Talarico. Center outlets stress the close result and Paxton’s unfavorable ratings, with one also emphasizing leaked audio. Right-leaning outlets present a close matchup and polling indicators for both candidates.

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