Skip to main content
8 min read
● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Donald Trump's home state at risk of flipping as Florida races tighten

Jolly is Donalds’ opponent in the close governor’s race, with support among independents and younger voters highlighted in the polling.

Donald Trump's home state at risk of flipping as Florida races tighten
Image · Newsweek

SOURCE CHECK

TAP FOR WHY
Outlet credibilityNewsweek75/100 HIGH
This article1 analysis · Oct 12, 2026
Newsweek
Oct 9, 2026
tl;dr

Polls show Florida’s governor’s race between Republican Byron Donalds and David Jolly close, while Senator Ashley Moody holds a narrow lead over state Representative Angela Nixon. The article weighs those surveys against other polls, Florida’s recent voting history and the campaign landscape.

Community verdict

VOTING CLOSED
How does this story look for
David W. Jolly Former U.S. Representative (R-FL)
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Jolly in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Jolly’s record.

● INFORMATIONAL

People in this story

SWIPE →
David W. Jolly
Former U.S. Representative (R-FL)

Republican-turned-independent candidate for Florida governor

PRIMARY SUBJECT
Byron Donalds
R · FL-19

Republican candidate for Florida governor

Donalds's version of this story ↗
Ashley Moody
R · FL · SEN

Republican U.S. Senate candidate in Florida

Moody's version of this story ↗

Democratic state representative and U.S. Senate candidate in Florida

Nixon's version of this story ↗
Randy Fine
R · FL-6

Republican U.S. representative who retained Florida’s 6th District in a 2025 special election

Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President; endorsed Donalds and planned campaign rallies for him

Former president and former Democratic presidential candidate

Bernie Sanders
I · VT · SEN

Independent U.S. senator from Vermont; endorsed Nixon

Republican U.S. representative facing a Democratic challenger in Florida’s 27th District

Democratic House candidate challenging Salazar in Florida’s 27th District

Independent U.S. Senate candidate in Florida

House Minority Leader

Cory Mills
R · FL-7

Republican U.S. representative who lost his primary in Florida’s 7th District

Darren Soto
D · FL-9

Democratic U.S. representative whose Orlando-area seat is a Republican target

Republican House candidate in Florida’s 7th District

Val Butler Demings
Former U.S. Representative (D-FL)

Former Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Florida

Kathy Castor
D · FL-14

Democratic U.S. representative whose Tampa-area seat is a Republican target

Ron DeSantis
Former U.S. Representative (R-FL)

Florida governor; endorsed Donalds and signed the state’s congressional map

Marco Rubio
Secretary of State

Secretary of State; former Florida senator whose seat Moody was appointed to fill

Bill Nelson
Former U.S. Senator (D-FL)

Former Florida senator

Democratic House candidate in Florida’s 7th District

Former candidate in Florida’s Democratic Senate primary

Republican U.S. representative whose Florida district is a Democratic target

ALSO MENTIONED  Alex Patton, GOP strategist quoted on Florida polling and the midterm outlook; Andrew Gillum, Former Democratic candidate for Florida governor; Emily Gregory, Democratic candidate who won a Florida state House special election; Jon Maples, Republican candidate in the Florida House District 87 special election; Josh Weil, Democratic candidate in the 2025 Florida 6th Congressional District special election

Part of a bigger story

3 OUTLETS
Poll Shows Donalds and Jolly Tied in Florida Governor’s Race

Outlets describe the Florida governor’s race between David Jolly and Byron Donalds as close, based on polling. Center outlets use polling to portray a close contest, with one comparing surveys and the other placing the race in Florida’s broader campaign context.

Discussion · 0

What's your take?

Loading comments…