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▼ Bad look for MoodyElections / Campaigns

Donald Trump's home state at risk of flipping as Florida races tighten

Moody leads Angela Nixon in the featured poll, while other surveys show her with a wider advantage.

Donald Trump's home state at risk of flipping as Florida races tighten
Image · Newsweek

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This article1 analysis · Oct 12, 2026
Newsweek
Oct 9, 2026
tl;dr

Polls show Florida’s governor’s race between Republican Byron Donalds and David Jolly close, while Senator Ashley Moody holds a narrow lead over state Representative Angela Nixon. The article weighs those surveys against other polls, Florida’s recent voting history and the campaign landscape.

Community verdict

18 VOTES
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Ashley Moody R · FL · SEN
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Ashley Moody
R · FL · SEN

Republican U.S. Senate candidate in Florida

PRIMARY SUBJECT
Byron Donalds
R · FL-19

Republican candidate for Florida governor

Donalds's version of this story ↗

Democratic state representative and U.S. Senate candidate in Florida

Nixon's version of this story ↗
David W. Jolly
Former U.S. Representative (R-FL)

Republican-turned-independent candidate for Florida governor

Jolly's version of this story ↗
Randy Fine
R · FL-6

Republican U.S. representative who retained Florida’s 6th District in a 2025 special election

Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President; endorsed Donalds and planned campaign rallies for him

Former president and former Democratic presidential candidate

Bernie Sanders
I · VT · SEN

Independent U.S. senator from Vermont; endorsed Nixon

Republican U.S. representative facing a Democratic challenger in Florida’s 27th District

Democratic House candidate challenging Salazar in Florida’s 27th District

Independent U.S. Senate candidate in Florida

House Minority Leader

Cory Mills
R · FL-7

Republican U.S. representative who lost his primary in Florida’s 7th District

Darren Soto
D · FL-9

Democratic U.S. representative whose Orlando-area seat is a Republican target

Republican House candidate in Florida’s 7th District

Val Butler Demings
Former U.S. Representative (D-FL)

Former Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Florida

Kathy Castor
D · FL-14

Democratic U.S. representative whose Tampa-area seat is a Republican target

Ron DeSantis
Former U.S. Representative (R-FL)

Florida governor; endorsed Donalds and signed the state’s congressional map

Marco Rubio
Secretary of State

Secretary of State; former Florida senator whose seat Moody was appointed to fill

Bill Nelson
Former U.S. Senator (D-FL)

Former Florida senator

Democratic House candidate in Florida’s 7th District

Former candidate in Florida’s Democratic Senate primary

Republican U.S. representative whose Florida district is a Democratic target

ALSO MENTIONED  Alex Patton, GOP strategist quoted on Florida polling and the midterm outlook; Andrew Gillum, Former Democratic candidate for Florida governor; Emily Gregory, Democratic candidate who won a Florida state House special election; Jon Maples, Republican candidate in the Florida House District 87 special election; Josh Weil, Democratic candidate in the 2025 Florida 6th Congressional District special election

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