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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Texas' Republican Senate primary runoff statistically tied shortly before start of early voting, poll finds

The poll found Paxton narrowly ahead of John Cornyn among likely Republican runoff voters.

Texas' Republican Senate primary runoff statistically tied shortly before start of early voting, poll finds
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This article1 analysis · Oct 7, 2026
tl;dr

A University of Houston poll found Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely voters in the Texas Republican Senate runoff, within the poll’s margin of error. It also found close or unsettled contests in other Republican runoffs.

Community verdict

VOTING CLOSED
How does this story look for
Ken Paxton R · TX
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Paxton in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Paxton’s record.

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People in this story

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Ken Paxton
R · TX

Republican candidate in the Texas Senate primary runoff

PRIMARY SUBJECT
John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

Republican incumbent in the Texas Senate primary runoff

Cornyn's version of this story ↗

Democratic Senate candidate discussed as the likely general-election opponent

Libertarian Senate candidate mentioned as a possible protest-vote choice

Chip Roy
R · TX-21

Representative and Republican candidate for Texas attorney general

Wesley Hunt
R · TX-38

Representative whose first-round primary voters are included in the poll

ALSO MENTIONED  Aaron Reitz, Former Republican primary candidate; Bo French, Republican activist and Railroad Commissioner runoff candidate; Jim Wright, Incumbent Texas Railroad Commissioner and Republican runoff candidate; Joan Huffman, State senator and former Republican primary candidate; Mayes Middleton, State senator and Republican candidate for Texas attorney general

Part of a bigger story

7 OUTLETS
University of Houston Poll Finds Paxton Leading Cornyn in Texas Runoff

A University of Houston poll put Ken Paxton at 48% and John Cornyn at 45% among likely Republican runoff voters, a gap within the poll’s margin of error. Left-leaning outlets report the narrow poll lead and also highlight reports of donor reluctance and fundraising difficulties. Center outlets present the result as a close or statistically tied contest. Right-leaning outlets report the narrow lead and add Paxton’s campaign ad criticizing Cornyn’s past immigration remarks.

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