Ken Paxton and James Talarico are neck and neck in U.S. Senate race, new poll finds
A new poll puts Paxton one point ahead of James Talarico, within the survey’s margin of error.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYCredibility rates Texas Public Radio, which republished this story. The other scores rate the article itself.
The reporting is attributed to The Texas Tribune, an established nonprofit newsroom, and the article includes a disclosure about the University of Texas at Austin’s financial support. The visible republication attribution supports transparency about the reporting’s origin.
- Source type — Republished local-news page carrying reporting from an established nonprofit newsroom.
- Author attribution — The article names a Texas Tribune reporter.
- Transparency — Includes a disclosure of the university’s financial support for the Tribune and states that supporters do not influence journalism.
- Editorial standards — The Texas Tribune is identified as a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization; no correction information is shown in the article.
The article gives the poll’s sample size, dates, margin of error and comparisons with the same pollster’s prior survey, alongside subgroup findings. It relies chiefly on one poll and provides limited detail about the survey’s methodology beyond those basic figures.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article presents results and demographic findings that favor each candidate and includes the poll’s margin of error and sample details. It does not include responses from the candidates or competing analysis of the poll.
- Source diversity — The report is based primarily on one poll, with no candidate or outside expert responses.
- Counterarguments presented — It provides comparisons and subgroup results that complicate a simple reading of the overall one-point lead.
- Precision — The poll’s sample size, field dates and margin of error are stated.
The article reports poll results and candidate standings in largely neutral language. It includes findings that favor both candidates without presenting an evident partisan argument.
- Language tone — Mostly matter-of-fact wording; the description of Paxton’s trajectory is tied to poll results.
- Source selection — The story relies on a university poll and does not center partisan advocates’ claims.
- Framing — The competitive race and shifts in support are presented as polling findings.
Republished with credit
Republished from Texas Tribune, with credit to the original publisher.
57 stories · 78–81 · updated Oct 7, 2026
This is Texas Tribune's own score, and this article is credited to Texas Tribune. The host score in the Source Check is Texas Public Radio's.
A University of Texas at Austin poll found Ken Paxton leading James Talarico 43% to 42% among Texas voters, within the margin of error. Paxton’s support improved from April, while Talarico’s remained unchanged.
A University of Texas at Austin poll found Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 43% to 42%, with a 3.5-point margin of error. The poll surveyed 1,200 self-reported registered voters from June 5 to 12. Compared with the same pollster’s April survey, Paxton’s support rose from 34% to 43%, while Talarico remained at 42%.
The poll showed Paxton with a 9-point lead among men, while Talarico led among women by 6 points and among Hispanic voters by 14 points. Talarico’s strategy includes appealing to traditional Republicans who supported John Cornyn, and he has said he is working to increase his support among Black voters. The poll also found Republican leads in several other statewide races.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Paxton in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Paxton’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Republican U.S. Senate candidate whose standing is measured in the poll
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate whose standing is measured in the poll
Talarico's version of this story ↗U.S. representative mentioned in connection with Black voters’ support in the primary
President, mentioned in connection with Republican turnout
Democratic state senator and comptroller candidate
U.S. senator and former Republican primary opponent of Paxton
Part of a bigger story
4 OUTLETSA poll has Ken Paxton narrowly ahead of James Talarico in the Texas Senate race. Center outlets describe the race as close, with Paxton’s lead within the poll’s margin of error and some coverage noting his gains since April. Right-leaning outlets present the result as good news for Republicans and pair it with criticism of Talarico’s positions and conduct.
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- OUTLETS
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- AVG CRED
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