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◆ Mixed look for TrumpElections / Campaigns

Trump endorsement makes Dem Senate candidate the favorite in deep red state

Kalshi’s market data suggested Trump’s endorsement of Paxton may have changed traders’ expectations in the Texas Senate race.

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Outlet credibilityRaw Story56/100 MEDIUM
This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
Raw Story
May 19, 2026
tl;dr

Kalshi prediction-market data showed James Talarico becoming favored in Texas’s open Senate race after President Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton. Kalshi also reported a rise in Paxton’s odds of winning the Republican nomination.

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Donald Trump R · President of the United States
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Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President whose endorsement of Paxton is reported as a possible influence on the Senate race

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Democratic Senate candidate described as newly favored in the general-election market

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Ken Paxton
R · TX

Republican Senate candidate endorsed by Trump

Part of a bigger story

34 OUTLETS
Trump Endorses Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Republican Runoff

Outlets agree that President Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate runoff ahead of the May 26 contest. Left-leaning outlets emphasize Paxton’s controversies and present the endorsement as a possible opening for Democrats. Center outlets focus on how Trump’s choice affects the runoff, Republican strategy and November prospects. Right-leaning outlets foreground Trump’s support for Paxton, including his praise of Paxton’s loyalty and alignment with his agenda.

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