US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Crack Down on Prediction Markets War Bets
Murphy announced the BETS OFF Act with Representative Greg Casar after unusual bets appeared on the timing of a possible war.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYCointelegraph is a specialist trade outlet with an identified author and an editorial-policy statement, though its niche focus and the limited sourcing in this report keep its institutional score below that of major general-news organizations.
- Source type — Specialist trade press focused on cryptocurrency and digital-asset markets.
- Author attribution — The article names Turner Wright as its author.
- Editorial standards — The page states that the article follows Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy.
- Transparency — The report identifies statements from lawmakers and Polymarket, but provides limited detail about independent verification.
The report identifies the lawmakers, the proposals, and the platforms’ differing offerings, and includes statements from Casar and Polymarket. It gives little detail about the bills’ provisions or status and offers no direct response from the prediction-market companies to the proposed restrictions.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article presents the lawmakers’ case and includes Polymarket’s rationale for offering markets, but does not provide a direct industry response to the bills or substantial detail about competing arguments over the proposed restrictions.
- Counterarguments presented — Polymarket offers a defense of prediction markets generally, but no direct response to the proposed legislation is included.
- Source diversity — The article uses lawmakers’ statements and a company statement, with descriptions of two platforms.
- Omitted context — The article does not explain the bills’ detailed provisions or present an opposing legal or industry perspective.
- Loaded language — Most evaluative language appears in attributed quotations rather than the article’s own narration.
The report uses mostly descriptive language, attributes claims to the lawmakers and Polymarket, and does not explicitly endorse or condemn the legislation or prediction markets.
- Language tone — The article generally describes the proposals and market offerings without loaded language.
- Source selection — It includes statements from Casar and Polymarket, alongside descriptions of both Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Framing — The story frames the legislation as a response to unusual war-related bets without adopting the lawmakers’ claims as established fact.
Representatives Greg Casar and Chris Murphy announced the BETS OFF Act, which would restrict prediction-market bets tied to sensitive government functions, after unusual wagers on the timing of a US-Iran war. The article also notes that Senator Adam Schiff recently introduced a separate bill targeting war-related event contracts.
Greg Casar and Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made what they described as highly unusual bets about when a US-Israel war with Iran would begin. Murphy had said he suspected people with inside information about President Donald Trump’s plan to bomb Iran made the bets. Casar argued that officials making decisions about war and peace should not have large financial stakes in those decisions.
The article says Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act the previous week, which would prevent prediction-market platforms from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, and individual deaths. Polymarket continued to offer bets tied to possible US decisions in the Iran conflict; the company defended prediction markets as a source of forecasts and answers, while Kalshi offered contracts related to the conflict but not specific military actions.
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SWIPE →Texas representative and sponsor of the BETS OFF Act
Casar's version of this story ↗President whose alleged plan to bomb Iran was discussed by Murphy
California senator who introduced the DEATH BETS Act
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