Nolte: Susan Collins Leads in NYT Poll, Abdul El-Sayed Up by 5
The article reports El-Sayed’s lead in Michigan and questions how the poll’s voter weighting affects that result.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYBreitbart is an opinion-oriented publisher, and this piece is explicitly a John Nolte column. It provides some polling figures and identifies poll sources, but the article offers little independent verification or methodological scrutiny.
- Source type — Opinion-first publisher and an explicitly labeled columnist’s piece.
- Editorial standards — The article identifies polling sources and reports numerical results, but provides limited supporting documentation or independent checks.
- Author attribution — The author is named, providing basic accountability.
- Transparency — Poll dates and sample size are given for the New York Times poll, while fuller methodological details are absent.
The article reports specific poll results, sample size and dates, and compares them with other polling. Its interpretation is largely the columnist’s, with limited methodological detail, independent analysis or competing perspectives.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article includes poll figures from several sources, but its analysis primarily advances the columnist’s skeptical interpretation of the New York Times poll. It does not present a countervailing assessment from pollsters or other analysts.
- Counterarguments presented — No substantive response from the pollsters or an analyst supporting the poll’s assumptions is included.
- Source diversity — References the New York Times poll, a Quantus Insight poll and RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
- Loaded language — Partisan and mocking descriptions frame the discussion.
- Opinion vs reporting — The column’s interpretation and predictions about polling are prominent alongside reported figures.
The writing uses overtly partisan and disparaging language about Democrats and presents polling uncertainty chiefly as a reason to doubt Democratic prospects. It gives little consideration to alternative explanations for the polling results.
- Language tone — Uses partisan labels and mocking language about Democratic figures and decisions.
- Framing — Frames the poll results and its weighting as unfavorable evidence for Democrats and potentially misleading about Republican support.
- Omission — Offers little discussion of poll methodology beyond its weighting assumptions or of explanations that could support the poll’s estimates.
A New York Times poll found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed leading his Michigan race by five points. John Nolte questions the poll’s voter weighting and argues that polling may underestimate Republican support.
The article reports that a New York Times poll of 619 likely voters across Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire found Collins leading Jackson 49% to 46%, El-Sayed leading by five points in Michigan, and Chris Pappas leading John Sununu by five points in New Hampshire. It also cites a separate poll showing Collins ahead by one point and RealClearPolitics’ polling average showing El-Sayed ahead by 2.7 points.
Nolte questions the New York Times poll’s weighting, comparing its assumptions with the states’ 2024 presidential results. He argues that polls have consistently underestimated Republican voters and says midterm polling assumes many Trump voters will not turn out, while declining to predict the election outcomes.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting El-Sayed in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward El-Sayed’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Republican incumbent senator in Maine’s Senate race
Collins's version of this story ↗Republican presidential candidate in the cited 2024 comparisons
Former vice president, cited in discussion of poll weighting
Republican Senate candidate in New Hampshire
Former Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race
Democratic Senate candidate in Maine and Collins’s opponent
Democratic candidate in New Hampshire’s Senate race
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