Sabato's 'Crystal Ball' sees David Jolly's odds improving — and Byron Donalds is taking notice | Florida News
Donalds addressed the tighter race, criticized Jolly over debates and explained changes to his campaign website.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYCredibility rates The Miami Times, where this article appeared. The other scores rate the article itself.
The publisher is a local news outlet, and the byline identifies the contributing reporter with Florida Politics. That attribution offers transparency, though the article provides limited information about the publisher’s correction practices or reporting standards.
- Source type — A local news publisher, which generally has established editorial processes but less national-scale oversight.
- Author attribution — The byline names A.G. Gancarski and identifies Florida Politics.
- Transparency — The article attributes quoted claims and gives identifiable campaign finance figures, but provides little information about corrections or editorial standards.
The article includes a named race-rating source, attributed campaign statements and specific fundraising figures. It gives limited detail about the polling behind the rating and does not include a response from Jolly or his campaign to Donalds’s debate accusation.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article presents the rating change, Jolly’s campaign’s favorable reaction, Donalds’s criticism and figures for both campaigns. It does not provide a response from Jolly or his campaign to the debate accusation or detailed context for the rating change.
- Source diversity — Includes an independent race-rating source and statements from both campaigns, but the campaign perspectives are not equally developed.
- Counterarguments presented — Jolly’s press secretary comments on the rating upgrade; no Jolly-side response to Donalds’s debate claim appears.
- Loaded language — Some vivid wording describes fundraising, but the article generally attributes contentious claims to their speakers.
The article reports a changed race rating and fundraising figures in a largely matter-of-fact tone. It includes favorable campaign framing from Jolly’s press secretary and Donalds’s criticism of Jolly without adopting either claim as the author’s conclusion.
- Language tone — Mostly descriptive language, with campaign characterizations presented as attributed claims.
- Source selection — Includes a comment from Jolly’s press secretary and direct remarks from Donalds, but no Jolly response to Donalds’s debate criticism.
- Framing — Presents the rating shift alongside the campaigns’ contrasting financial positions.
Cites Florida Politics
This article cites Florida Politics as its original publisher. ChamberLight has not verified that it is a republication, so the scores are The Miami Times's own.
104 stories · 69–71 · updated Oct 5, 2026
This is Florida Politics's own score. The Source Check scores are for The Miami Times and this article.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Florida’s race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Byron Donalds said David Jolly was avoiding debates, while the article also reported both campaigns’ fundraising figures.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating of the Florida race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” following a similar shift by Inside Elections the prior week. The Crystal Ball said close polling, an unfavorable political environment and possible fatigue with extended Republican leadership could make the race close. Jolly’s press secretary called the rating change the second national-rater upgrade in a week and pointed to the candidate’s momentum.
The article reported that, as of Sept. 11, Jolly had nearly $3.3 million in his campaign account and just over $3 million in a political committee, while Donalds had nearly $44 million in cash on hand after raising nearly $3.2 million across his campaign and committee accounts that week. Speaking in Sanford, Donalds accused Jolly of trying to avoid debates and said his own campaign website had been updated to focus on his campaign for governor and Florida issues.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Donalds in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Donalds’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Democratic candidate in the Florida governor’s race
Jolly's version of this story ↗President whose endorsement of Donalds is mentioned
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