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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Lindsey Graham Chances of Winning South Carolina Senate Race

Polling and election forecasts point to a strong position for Graham in South Carolina’s Senate race.

Lindsey Graham Chances of Winning South Carolina Senate Race
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This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
Newsweek
May 16, 2026
tl;dr

A new poll puts Senator Lindsey Graham at 56 percent in South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary, above the threshold to avoid a runoff. Prediction markets and forecasters also favor Republicans in November, though the article notes that markets can be affected by low liquidity and trader behavior.

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Lindsey Graham Former U.S. Senator (R-SC)
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This story reports what happened without casting Graham in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Graham’s record.

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Lindsey Graham
Former U.S. Senator (R-SC)

Senator whose South Carolina primary and reelection prospects are assessed

PRIMARY SUBJECT

Republican Senate candidate challenging Graham

Mark Lynch
R · SC

Republican Senate candidate challenging Graham

Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President whose endorsement is discussed as a factor in Graham’s primary standing

Republican Senate candidate challenging Graham

Republican Senate candidate challenging Graham

Republican Senate candidate challenging Graham

Paul Dans
R · SC

Republican Senate candidate challenging Graham

Part of a bigger story

7 OUTLETS
Lindsey Graham Says Republicans Opposing Trump Risk Losing Elections

Lindsey Graham cited Bill Cassidy’s Louisiana primary loss as a warning that Republicans who oppose Donald Trump or his agenda risk losing. Left-leaning outlets cast the warning as pressure on Republican dissent. Center outlets recount the warning with additional political voices or frame Cassidy’s loss as evidence of Trump’s influence; one article instead covers Graham’s Senate-race prospects. Right-leaning outlets largely center Graham’s claim that opposing Trump risks electoral defeat.

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