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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

James Talarico's Chances of Beating Ken Paxton After Runoff Win

Polling and betting odds suggest Talarico could be competitive against Paxton in November.

James Talarico's Chances of Beating Ken Paxton After Runoff Win
Image · Newsweek

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Outlet credibilityNewsweek75/100 HIGH
This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
Newsweek
May 26, 2026
tl;dr

After Ken Paxton won the Republican runoff for Texas’s Senate seat, polls and betting odds pointed to a competitive November race with James Talarico. The article reviews the changing polling picture and President Donald Trump’s support for Paxton.

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No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Talarico in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Talarico’s record.

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Democratic candidate in the Texas Senate race

PRIMARY SUBJECT
Ken Paxton
R · TX

Republican candidate in the Texas Senate race

Paxton's version of this story ↗

Representative and defeated Democratic primary candidate

Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President who endorsed Paxton and criticized Cornyn

Thomas Massie
R · KY-4

Representative who lost a Republican primary

Bill Cassidy
R · LA · SEN

Louisiana senator who lost a primary

Republican candidate who defeated Massie in a primary

John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

Incumbent senator defeated by Paxton in the Republican runoff

Part of a bigger story

15 OUTLETS
Paxton Wins Texas GOP Senate Runoff, Setting Up Race Against Talarico

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