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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Texas Prediction Changes to 'Lean' GOP After Paxton Win

Paxton’s runoff win prompted Cook to move the Texas Senate race into its “lean Republican” column.

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This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
Newser
May 27, 2026
tl;dr

The Cook Political Report shifted the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” after Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn in the GOP runoff. Cook cited Paxton’s vulnerabilities, while the article also notes James Talarico’s cash advantage.

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Ken Paxton R · TX
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This story reports what happened without casting Paxton in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Paxton’s record.

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Ken Paxton
R · TX

Republican Senate candidate whose runoff win prompted a change in the race rating

PRIMARY SUBJECT

Democratic Senate nominee

Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President who endorsed Paxton

Former president referenced by Talarico

John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

Incumbent defeated by Paxton in the Republican runoff

Part of a bigger story

55 OUTLETS
Ken Paxton Defeats John Cornyn in Texas Senate Runoff

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