Matt Dunlap leads Paul LePage in 2nd District race, UNH poll finds
The poll puts Dunlap ahead of LePage in the race for Maine’s 2nd District seat.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYCentralmaine.com is a regional news outlet, and the article is attributed to a named reporter. The story provides poll methodology and contextual reporting, though the supplied information does not establish its correction practices.
- Source type — Regional news publisher with a local reporting focus.
- Author attribution — A named reporter is credited.
- Transparency — The article identifies the pollster, sample size, field dates and margin of error.
- Correction history — No correction-practice information is provided in the article text.
The report gives specific polling figures and methodology and supplies election context. It includes limited direct comment from the candidates and does not provide independent analysis of the poll’s limitations beyond the stated margin of error.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article gives comparable polling figures and background on both candidates, along with survey methodology. Direct candidate perspectives are limited, and the report includes more detail about LePage’s past and current statements than about Dunlap’s campaign.
- Source diversity — Includes poll results, forecaster assessments and campaign context, but little direct comment from candidates.
- Counterarguments presented — Provides context that complicates the poll result, including prior Republican-leaning forecasts and a changed toss-up rating.
- Omitted context — Limited candidate responses and limited discussion of polling uncertainty beyond the stated margin of error.
- Loaded language — Language is largely restrained and factual.
The article uses generally neutral language and reports polling, forecasts and campaign context without overtly endorsing either candidate. Its account of political factors is framed as context for the race rather than partisan advocacy.
- Language tone — Mostly descriptive, with no sustained loaded language favoring either candidate.
- Framing — Presents the poll as notable against prior expectations, while attributing those expectations to forecasters.
- Source selection — Relies on a named polling organization and election forecasters; candidate statements are limited.
A University of New Hampshire poll found Matt Dunlap leading Paul LePage 51% to 45% among likely voters in Maine’s 2nd District race. The result stands out against forecasts that had generally favored Republicans.
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center reported that 51% of likely voters supported Dunlap, 45% supported LePage and 5% were undecided. The online survey questioned 627 district voters from September 17 to September 21 and had a margin of error of 3.9%. The article says little independent polling had been conducted in the race since Dunlap’s June primary win.
The article notes that forecasters had mostly rated the district as likely Republican, while Fox News had shifted its projection to a toss-up. It also reports that Dunlap had a net favorability rating of +5 and LePage -14 in the survey. The story describes LePage’s support for Trump’s immigration crackdown and his later comment that a relative by marriage faced deportation despite having a valid work permit.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Dunlap in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Dunlap’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →President whose approval, endorsement and policies are discussed as factors in the race
Outgoing representative whose seat is being contested
New York representative whom Golden endorsed for reelection
Maine governor and LePage’s former gubernatorial opponent
Part of a bigger story
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