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Hawaii Elections: Who's Leading In Prediction Markets?
Kalshi markets are among the measures the article uses to describe the outlook for Tokuda’s reelection race.
SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYOutlet credibility · Forbes
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This article1 analysis · Sep 25, 2026
SOURCEForbes
Published Sep 16, 2026
tl;dr
The article reports that Kalshi prediction markets expect Hawaii’s incumbent Democrats, including Reps. Ed Case and Jill Tokuda, to win reelection. It explains how market probabilities differ from polls and notes that neither predicts the official results with certainty.
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Jill N. Tokuda
D · HI-2
Incumbent U.S. representative whose reelection prospects are included in the prediction-market outlook.
PRIMARY SUBJECT
Ed Case
D · HI-1
Incumbent U.S. representative whose reelection prospects are included in the prediction-market outlook.
Case's version of this story ↗ALSO MENTIONED Gary Cordery, Republican candidate running against Josh Green for governor.; Josh Green, Hawaii governor and incumbent in the gubernatorial race covered by the market outlook.
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