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● InformationalElections / Campaigns

Election Betting Markets Believe The Texas Senate Race Is A Toss-Up

Betting markets and forecasters see a close Senate race after Paxton’s Republican primary win.

Election Betting Markets Believe The Texas Senate Race Is A Toss-Up
Image · Forbes

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Outlet credibilityForbes77/100 HIGH
This article1 analysis · Oct 6, 2026
Forbes
May 27, 2026
tl;dr

Betting markets and political forecasters rate the Texas Senate race as close after Ken Paxton’s Republican primary runoff win, with Democrats’ chances improving from earlier in the year.

Community verdict

VOTING CLOSED
How does this story look for
Ken Paxton R · TX
NOT RATEDCLOSED

No good or bad look here

This story reports what happened without casting Paxton in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Paxton’s record.

● INFORMATIONAL

People in this story

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Ken Paxton
R · TX

Texas attorney general and Republican Senate candidate whose primary win preceded the reported odds shifts

PRIMARY SUBJECT

Democratic Senate candidate whose odds are compared with Paxton’s

Talarico's version of this story ↗
Donald Trump
R · President of the United States
John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

Incumbent Texas senator whom Paxton defeated in the Republican primary

Part of a bigger story

40 OUTLETS
Ken Paxton Wins Republican Senate Runoff in Texas

Outlets agree Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate runoff, winning the party’s Senate nomination. They report he will face Democrat James Talarico in November. Left-leaning outlets focus on Paxton’s victory speech, including his remarks about transgender youth and the criticism they drew, while one warns Trump’s role could complicate Republicans’ efforts to hold the seat. Center outlets mostly report the result and November matchup, with some coverage examining the race’s competitiveness and scrutiny facing Paxton. Right-leaning outlets cast the win as a boost for Trump-aligned Republicans and a setback for the party establishment.

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