New Stetson Univ. poll casts doubt on blue wave in Florida
The poll reports Moody leading Angie Nixon and describes voter familiarity and favorability toward her.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYFlorida Politics is a regional news outlet with an attributed byline, and this report identifies the polling organization and gives basic methodology. The text alone does not establish its correction practices or broader record of original reporting.
- Source type — Regional news outlet; this is a credible local-news prior, below the strongest national and wire-service benchmarks.
- Author attribution — The article identifies A.G. Gancarski as its author.
- Transparency — The article names Stetson’s polling center and reports the panel provider, sample size, and field dates.
The report supplies specific polling results and basic field-method details, and compares them with another recent poll. It relies mainly on one poll and offers limited independent analysis or candidate responses; some interpretations about voter groups and campaign resources are not attributed to named sources.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article reports specific findings and methodology and compares the results with a separate poll, but most of its analysis relies on one poll and does not include candidate responses or outside polling experts.
- Source diversity — The article identifies the Stetson poll and references a separate Florida Politics poll, but the analysis centers on Stetson’s survey.
- Omitted context — No candidate or independent polling expert is quoted, and the article gives limited context for interpreting the results.
- Counterarguments presented — The comparison with a poll showing closer races provides some contrasting context.
- Loaded language — Some interpretive phrasing appears, but the article is principally a poll-results report.
The report mostly presents polling figures in a straightforward manner, but its headline and framing emphasize Republican strength and Democratic difficulties. The text does not use strongly partisan language.
- Framing — The report foregrounds Republican leads and interprets several results as problems for Democrats.
- Headline — The headline frames the poll as casting doubt on a Democratic blue wave.
- Language tone — Most figures are presented neutrally, with limited evaluative wording.
A Stetson University poll shows Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody leading their Florida opponents, while a proposed homestead property-tax exemption amendment draws weaker support. The poll’s online non-probability panel and the divergence from another recent survey provide important context.
Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research reported that Byron Donalds had 51% support, 12 points ahead of David Jolly, and Ashley Moody had 51%, 11 points ahead of Angie Nixon. The article also describes differences in support among party and demographic groups and reports that many voters either do not know Nixon or are unwilling to support her. The survey included 830 Floridians interviewed through an online non-probability panel between September 14 and September 21.
The poll found 51% support for a proposed increase to Florida’s homestead exemption for non-school taxes, with 25% opposed and 24% undecided. Florida Politics says the results favored Republicans compared with a St. Pete Polls survey conducted that month, which had the governor and Senate races as dead heats and the amendment at 45% support.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Moody in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Moody’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Florida Senate candidate and state representative; the article refers to her as Angie Nixon
Nixon's version of this story ↗Florida gubernatorial candidate and U.S. representative whose poll standing is reported
Donalds's version of this story ↗Former Florida gubernatorial candidate, mentioned in a description of voters’ past choices
President, mentioned in a description of 2024 voters’ preferences
Former presidential candidate, mentioned in a description of 2024 voters’ preferences
Florida governor, mentioned in a description of voters’ past choices
Secretary of State and Moody’s predecessor in the Senate seat
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