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Texas Senate Odds: Trump Throws Weight Around In Runoff

The article says Trump’s endorsement of Paxton drove a sharp shift in prediction-market odds.

Texas Senate Odds: Trump Throws Weight Around In Runoff
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This article1 analysis · Oct 9, 2026
Mar 9, 2026
tl;dr

An update says Ken Paxton won the Texas Republican Senate runoff, while the article’s main analysis describes the contest as upcoming and says Donald Trump’s endorsement pushed prediction-market odds sharply toward Paxton. It also examines John Cornyn’s fundraising advantage and the race’s possible general-election implications.

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Donald Trump R · President of the United States
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Donald Trump
R · President of the United States

President whose endorsement of Paxton is presented as a catalyst in the runoff

PRIMARY SUBJECT
Ken Paxton
R · TX

Republican Senate candidate in the Texas runoff

Paxton's version of this story ↗
John Cornyn
R · TX · SEN

Republican incumbent and Senate candidate in the Texas runoff

Cornyn's version of this story ↗

Democratic Senate candidate mentioned as a possible general-election opponent

Part of a bigger story

19 OUTLETS
Cornyn and Paxton Remain in Texas Senate Runoff as Trump Delays Endorsement

John Cornyn and Ken Paxton remain in Texas’s Republican Senate runoff, and Trump has not endorsed either candidate. Left-leaning outlets frame Trump’s decision as a retreat that signals weakness. Center outlets mostly focus on the runoff and Trump’s delayed choice, often linking it to the SAVE America Act and sometimes noting criticism of the delay. Right-leaning outlets emphasize Cornyn’s distance from Republican grassroots voters and Paxton’s support among conservatives.

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