Poll: John Sununu Leads Chris Pappas in New Hampshire Senate Race
A Republican-sponsored poll put Sununu one point ahead of Chris Pappas in New Hampshire’s Senate race.
SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYBreitbart is an opinion-oriented outlet with a strong partisan identity, which lowers its institutional credibility score. This article nevertheless attributes its polling claims, identifies the poll’s Republican sponsor, and provides basic survey details.
- Source type — Opinion-oriented publisher with a pronounced partisan identity.
- Transparency — Discloses that the poll was commissioned for the NRSC and identifies the polling firm and sample.
- Author attribution — The article has a named author.
The article gives the poll’s sponsor, firm, sample size, dates, topline results and margin of error, and includes competing polling and forecasting context. Its discussion relies heavily on partisan-sponsored polling and does not include a response from either candidate.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article discloses the poll’s Republican sponsor and notes its statistical uncertainty, another poll’s results, and forecasters’ view. The story still relies substantially on Republican-sponsored polling and does not provide a response from either candidate.
- Source diversity — Includes the NRSC poll, a University of New Hampshire poll, and forecasters’ assessment.
- Counterarguments presented — Notes the margin of error and that the UNH director called the race a statistical tie.
- Omitted context — Neither candidate’s response to the poll is included.
- Loaded language — A dramatic characterization of the numbers appears as an attributed description, not the article’s own claim.
The article gives prominent attention to an NRSC-commissioned poll and repeats the memo’s argument that it challenges a favorable narrative for Democrats. It also includes countervailing context from the poll’s margin of error, another survey, and forecasters.
- Framing — Centers the Republican-commissioned poll as a challenge to assumptions about Democratic strength.
- Source selection — Includes a partisan-sponsored survey but also cites an independent university survey and election forecasters.
- Language tone — Uses the phrase “second polling blow” while attributing it to Newsweek.
A poll commissioned for the NRSC put John Sununu one point ahead of Chris Pappas in New Hampshire’s Senate race, a margin within the poll’s error range. The story also notes other recent polling and the contested primaries ahead.
A poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee found John Sununu at 37 percent and Chris Pappas at 36 percent. The four-point margin of error makes the result a statistical tie; 23 percent of respondents were undecided. The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Aug. 27–30 by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.
The article says a University of New Hampshire poll released Aug. 26 also showed Sununu ahead, while the UNH survey director called the contest a statistical tie and forecasters continued to give Democrats a slight edge. Sununu and Pappas have traded attack ads, and both face challengers in the Sept. 8 primaries. The article says the general-election winner will run for Jeanne Shaheen’s seat, with Senate control potentially at stake.
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Democratic representative and Senate candidate whose poll standing is compared with Sununu’s
Pappas's version of this story ↗Independent Senate candidate
Former Massachusetts senator and challenger in Sununu’s Republican primary
Progressive challenger in Pappas’s primary
President who endorsed Sununu
Senator whose seat is at issue in the race
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