'You're in a dogfight': New poll suggests three major statewide races in Florida are virtually tied
The poll showed Donalds narrowly ahead in Florida’s gubernatorial race.

SOURCE CHECK
TAP FOR WHYAction News Jax is an established local news outlet with an identified reporter and attributed reporting. The story cites a named polling organization and an academic expert, though it provides little detail about the poll’s methodology.
- Source type — Established local news outlet; a credible regional newsroom.
- Transparency — The pollster and an academic commentator are identified.
- Author attribution — A reporter is named.
- Editorial standards — The page presents as reported local news, but the article offers limited poll-method details.
The report gives the poll’s findings, includes comments from candidates or their campaigns and an independent academic, and notes the limited polling available for comparison. It does not provide polling methodology or a fuller explanation of the poll’s precision.
HOW WE SCORE ↗The article reports candidates’ and campaigns’ responses from both parties and includes an expert’s assessment and a caution about poll accuracy. Moody’s campaign did not comment, and the report does not provide the poll’s methodology or additional polling for comparison.
- Source diversity — Uses poll findings, candidate or campaign statements, and a political science professor.
- Counterarguments presented — Includes responses from both parties and notes that Moody’s campaign declined to comment.
- Omitted context — Does not include poll methodology or much comparative polling data.
- Loaded language — The quoted phrase “dog fight” is attributed to the expert; the reporting itself is not notably loaded.
The report uses neutral language and attributes the candidates’ claims to them or their campaigns. It presents perspectives from both parties and includes an expert’s caveat about the limited polling.
- Language tone — Describes the results and candidate responses in largely neutral terms.
- Source selection — Includes comments from candidates or campaigns on both sides, as well as an academic expert.
- Framing — Frames the story around poll findings across three races rather than advocating for a party or candidate.
A St. Pete Polls survey found Florida’s gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races nearly tied, with the attorney general race also close. A political science professor said the results could put Florida in play for Democrats, while cautioning that few recent polls are available for comparison.
The poll showed Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly by one-tenth of a percentage point, and Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by less than half a percentage point. Donalds’ campaign said he would win in November; Nixon said the results matched what her campaign was seeing, while Moody’s campaign declined to comment. Jolly said he was not surprised by the poll.
The poll shifted the gubernatorial race rating to a tossup and the Senate race rating to “leans Republican.” UCF political science professor Aubrey Jewett said the results suggested Florida could be in play for Democrats, but added that the poll’s accuracy was difficult to assess because only a few polls had been conducted recently. The survey also found Republican James Uthmeier leading Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez by 1.4 points in the attorney general race.
Community verdict
VOTING CLOSEDNo good or bad look here
This story reports what happened without casting Donalds in a good or bad light, so readers don’t rate it and it doesn’t count toward Donalds’s record.
People in this story
SWIPE →Republican gubernatorial nominee whose poll standing is reported
Democratic gubernatorial opponent of Byron Donalds
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